StraightTalk - Economics - The Conference Board

Economics
StraightTalk®

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Bart van Ark
Chief Economist

October 2008

How Will the Financial Crisis Hit Main Street?

Massive Deleveraging Obstructing Credit Channels
Rescue Efforts Are Slowly Beginning to Calm Markets
Homeowners and Consumers Take the Hit
Corporate Balance Sheets Are Healthy on Average…
…But Lower Credit Scores Mean Higher Spending Costs
More Tightening Ahead
What Will Be the Long-Term Consequences?

StraightTalk is a monthly publication from the Chief Economist of The Conference Board. It provides economic research, objective analysis, and forecasts to help new economy business executives assess economic conditions impacting their markets.

Download a sample issue (828 KB).

The U.S. Economic Forecast

Updated: November 6, 2008

	2008			2009			2008	2009	2010
	III Q*	IV Q	I Q	II Q	III Q	IV Q	Annual	Annual	Annual
Real GDP	-0.3	-1.9	-1.6	-1.0	0.3	1.1	1.4	-0.7	1.9
CPI Inflation	6.9	0.5	2.0	2.3	2.5	2.8	4.5	2.7	2.8
Real Consumer Spending	-3.1	-1.2	-1.5	-0.7	1.6	1.9	0.5	-0.8	2.0
Unemployment Rate (%)	6.0	6.4	6.9	7.2	7.5	7.6	5.7	7.3	7.6
90 Day T-Bills (%)	1.67	1.12	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.75	1.64	0.75	1.06
10 Yr Treas Bonds (%)	3.83	3.75	4.00	4.25	4.48	4.73	3.78	4.37	4.98

* Actual data